FG sets Up Committee to Align Macroeconomic Assumptions
By Ewache Ajefu
Nigeria’s Economic Management Power House, the Economic Management Team(EMT), has Sets up Committee to align Government’s Macroeconomic Assumptions and approved
Strategy to Accelerate Growth in Key Sectors.
The Economic Management Team (EMT), the Federal Government’s principal platform for economic management and coordination, met in Abuja on Monday, and approved the establishment of a dedicated inter-agency committee to harmonise the macroeconomic assumptions that underpin government budgeting and economic planning, and reviewed progress across the economy, agriculture, trade and investment, manufacturing and Nigeria’s preparations to host two major continental trade events.
The committee will also harmonise macroeconomic assumptions including crude oil price and production volumes, exchange rate, inflation and non-oil revenue projections used by fiscal and monetary authorities across government. The decision follows a joint budget retreat and a technical validation workshop that traced budget under-performance in part to inconsistent assumptions used by different agencies, and to occasional divergence between key projections by various authorities responsible for economic policies.
The committee will also work to resolve inconsistencies in how key indicators are reported within government, to external parties and the public.
STATE OF THE ECONOMY
Real GDP growth reached 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, its strongest quarterly outturn since Q3 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This translates to about 17% growth rate for half-year 2026 in US$ terms.
External reserves rose to over US$54 billion in early September 2026, the highest level in nearly 18 years according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, comfortably above 2026 official projections.
The naira has strengthened to its firmest levels in about two years, trading in the N1,300s per US dollar range in early September 2026, alongside the reserve build-up.
FTSE Russell has reclassified Nigeria from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status, effective from the market open on Monday, 21 September 2026 — the country’s return to the index after roughly three years, expected to improve visibility for Nigerian equities among international investors.
The EMT was briefed that public debt remains below 40% of GDP and that Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook by Moody’s has moved from stable to positive.
The Team noted that Nigeria’s economy, measured in purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms at over US$ 2.2 trillion, is substantially larger than its nominal dollar GDP, and indicative of the growth potential of the economy towards the US$ 1 trillion nominal GDP mark by 2030.
STRENGTHENING EMT GOVERNANCE AND DATA COORDINATION
The Team agreed a revised Terms of Reference, expanding its remit to include macroeconomic performance review, stronger fiscal–monetary coordination, monitoring of Renewed Hope Agenda priorities and periodic review of Federal Government financing needs, alongside a move to a monthly meeting cadence with at least two strategic sector reviews per sitting.
To improve the reliability of official statistics, the Ministry of Finance is designated as the coordinating custodian for national economic data, with line agencies responsible for their respective datasets as inputs into coordinated public releases.
AGRICULTURE AND THE PATH TO A US$1 TRILLION ECONOMY
The EMT reviewed a strategy to grow agriculture’s contribution toward Nigeria’s US$1 trillion economy ambition by 2030, including measures to reduce post-harvest losses, expand processing and mechanisation, strengthen export compliance and improve the timing of capital releases ahead of planting seasons. The Team also reviewed financing measures for the sector, including a planned recapitalisation of the Bank of Agriculture and a new smallholder credit window, alongside a target to raise agriculture’s share of private-sector credit toward 10% by 2030.
HOSTING CANEX 2026 AND IATF 2027
The EMT reviewed Nigeria’s readiness to host the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) in November 2026 and the Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF) in November 2027 in Lagos, both expected to draw large numbers of exhibitors, international buyers and, for IATF, African heads of state, with organisers projecting substantial trade and investment deal flow. The Ministry of Finance was tasked with coordinating funding and customs facilitation, working with the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment on a consolidated action plan with named ministerial owners.
Statement from the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy
“Today’s decisions tighten the link between the numbers we plan with and the actual outturns. A single, harmonised set of assumptions across the fiscal and monetary authorities means fewer surprises in the budget and more credible planning for investors and all Nigerians.”
